Introduction

Nigeria’s inflation moderated further in January 2026, though at a slower pace than the rapid declines observed through much of 2025. Headline inflation edged lower, extending the disinflation streak, but the pace of improvement reflects the fading impact of prior CPI rebasing effects.

While the slowdown in the rate of decline suggests normalization, underlying price dynamics reveal a more encouraging development: inflation easing is becoming increasingly broad-based.

Food prices recorded a sharper moderation, supported by improved domestic supply conditions and relative stability in the foreign exchange market. Core inflation, though still elevated, showed signs of easing momentum on a month-on-month basis, indicating that structural price pressures may be softening.

The Real Story: Breadth Over Speed

January’s data tells a more important story than the headline number alone.

Unlike previous months where disinflation was heavily influenced by statistical adjustments, January’s moderation appears increasingly anchored in fundamentals:

• Improved food supply conditions
• Exchange rate appreciation lowering import costs
• Stable energy prices
• Normalized post-festive demand

Importantly, monthly price movements contracted across major inflation components, reinforcing the narrative that easing pressures are no longer isolated to a single category.

Food inflation continues to decelerate meaningfully, with a growing number of states now recording single-digit readings. Meanwhile, core inflation remains relatively sticky year-on-year but showed outright month-on-month contraction — a signal that underlying cost pressures may be turning a corner.

State Focus: South-East Leads Moderation

Regional dispersion remains evident, but the direction of travel is largely synchronized.

The South-East emerged as the region with the slowest headline inflation in January, displacing the North-West. Several states recorded notable moderation in both food and all-items inflation, underscoring the improving breadth of price stability.

At the state level:

• A small number of states achieved single-digit all-items inflation.
• More than twenty states recorded single-digit food inflation.
• Month-on-month food inflation declined across all 36 states — a significant improvement from December.

However, disparities persist. The North Central region continues to face relatively higher price pressures, largely linked to supply chain disruptions stemming from insecurity in key agricultural corridors.

The contrast between states highlights that while inflation is moderating nationally, localized structural challenges continue to influence price formation.

Download the Full January 2026 Inflation Report

For detailed state-by-state breakdowns, full data tables, technical analysis, and our February Outlook commentary, download the complete report.