Nigeria’s Disinflation Gains Momentum in September

Nigeria’s disinflation trend accelerated sharply in September 2025, marking the steepest moderation this year. Headline inflation dropped by 210 basis points to 18.02%, while food inflation declined even more significantly by 500 basis points to 16.87%.

This development was largely driven by a stronger naira, which appreciated by 3.81% during the month, alongside reduced energy and staple food prices following Dangote’s zero-logistics initiative.

Across key indicators, inflation eased nationwide, signaling a broader impact beyond urban centers. Core inflation moderated to 19.53%, reflecting easing cost pressures across services and non-food segments. For the first time this year, all components of Nigeria’s inflation have fallen below 20%.

Regional Inflation: A Broader Spread of Stability

Inflation moderation spread across the six geopolitical zones, with the Northeast and Southeast recording the lowest price pressures. Bauchi and Anambra stood out as the states with the slowest inflation, while Ekiti and Adamawa recorded the highest food and headline inflation rates respectively.

This shift points to a more balanced disinflation pattern, showing that price stability is becoming more widespread across regions rather than isolated to select states.

The decline in food inflation across 22 states, compared to 16 in August, underscores how improved food supply and stronger currency performance are reinforcing national stability.

A Turning Point for Inflation Dynamics

According to Credit Direct Research, the sharper naira appreciation in September, supported by improved food supply and cheaper energy, has moved Nigeria’s disinflation story from temporary effects to more sustainable, fundamental drivers.

However, analysts note potential headwinds in October — rising fuel prices following the Dangote–NUPENG dispute, declining crude oil prices below $60 per barrel, and modest drops in production to 1.39mbpd may slow the pace of improvement. Still, the month’s growth in external reserves to $42.35 billion provides a strong buffer.

Outlook for October

Credit Direct Research expects disinflation to continue into October, though at a slower pace, with headline inflation likely easing by 75 to 150 basis points.
Harvest season gains, declining imported food prices, and sustained currency stability should reinforce this trend — provided that fuel costs and security challenges remain contained.

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