Nigeria’s GDP Growth Moderates in Q3 2025

Nigeria’s economic growth slowed to 3.98% in Q3 2025, down from 4.23% in Q2 2025, but higher than the 3.86% recorded in Q3 2024. Despite the moderation, the non-oil sector remained the major engine of expansion, contributing 3.78 percentage points to overall growth.

The oil sector contributed just 0.20 percentage point, reflecting its smaller GDP share and a slowdown in crude oil production.

The non-oil sector’s share of total economic activity climbed to 96.56%, reinforcing its role as the backbone of the economy. Growth in the non-oil sector improved to 3.91%, supported by agriculture, ICT, real estate, financial institutions, trade, and manufacturing.

Meanwhile, oil sector growth dropped sharply, expanding by only 5.84% in Q3 2025 compared to a strong 20.46% in Q2. Average crude oil production fell from 1.68mbpd to 1.64mbpd, reducing oil’s share of GDP to 3.44%, down from 4.05% in Q2.

With new tax reforms expected to begin in 2026, the sustained strength of the non-oil sector presents an opportunity for improved revenue mobilisation—provided implementation is effective.

Sector Breakdown: Agriculture Rebounds as Services and Industry Slip

Nigeria’s sector mix shifted significantly this quarter.

• Agriculture surged to 31.3% of GDP, up by 504bps

• Services declined to 53.02%, down by 315bps

• Industry decreased to 15.77%, down by 154bps

The rebound in agriculture was driven by strong growth in:

• Forestry: 4.69%

• Livestock: 3.49%

Both more than doubled their Q2 performance.

However, services weakened due to softer activity in ICT and transportation. This shift indicates a temporary tilt toward agriculture as structural pressures persist in key service industries.

‍

The mining sector stood out as the dominant growth engine in Q3 2025, with three of its subsectors ranking among the fastest growing in the quarter. The performance reflects:

• Increased licensing activity

• Improved FX stability

• Growing foreign participation in extractive operations

Rail transport and pipelines remained strong at 33.29% growth, though slightly lower than 43.08% in Q2.

The insurance sector also rebounded impressively, expanding 20.78%

‍

If you would like to explore deeper analysis, you can download the full Q3 GDP Report 2025.

‍