Nigeria’s economic landscape at the end of 2025 presents a fascinating contradiction. According to the latest research notes, headline inflation has continued its downward journey for the eighth consecutive month, dropping to 14.45% in November. At first glance, this looks like a major victory for the economy. However, a closer look at the data reveals a more complex reality: while the yearly figures are falling, the daily cost of living is starting to pick up speed again.

The "Base Effect" Illusion

The main reason for this drop isn't necessarily that prices are falling, but rather a "statistical rebasing". Last year’s prices were so high that, by comparison, this year's moderate increases look like a decline. In reality, month-on-month inflation actually accelerated to 1.22%, driven by a weaker Naira and supply-side hiccups.

A Divided Nation

The report highlights significant regional differences. The Northwest enjoyed the slowest price increases, while the Southwest faced the toughest road to moderation. Specifically, Rivers State saw the highest overall inflation at 17.78%, while Kogi State struggled with the highest food costs. On the brighter side, states like Plateau and Imo recorded some of the lowest rates in the country, suggesting that relief is spreading, albeit unevenly.

Why This Matters

This report matters because it shows that Nigeria is at a crossroads. We are seeing "disinflation" on paper, but the "stickiness" of core inflation in areas like transport, energy, and housing means that the average Nigerian’s wallet still feels the pinch.

Looking Toward 2026 The outlook for the new year remains cautiously optimistic. Analysts expect inflation to keep falling in December, potentially settling between 20.2% and 21.02% for the year’s average. Tailwinds like the Dangote Refinery’s recent fuel price cut and increased festive remittances offer hope. However, with 2025 seeing a reported 70% revenue shortfall and persistent insecurity, the path to a truly affordable Nigeria remains a work in progress.

If you would like to explore the full analysis, you can download the full November Inflation Report.