Nigeria’s economic landscape shifted significantly in December 2025, marked by a technical adjustment that might confuse a casual observer but reveals a deeper trend of cooling prices. According to the latest research notes, headline inflation settled at 15.15% for the month. While this appears higher than November’s 14.45%, the "increase" is actually the result of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) switching to a 12-month average CPI methodology rather than a single-month index.

The Real Story

A Year of Disinflation When you look past the technical recalculation, the broader picture for 2025 is one of rapid relief. Over the course of the year, headline inflation plummeted by 1,246 basis points. The most significant victory was in food inflation, which dropped even faster, by 1,878 basis points, to end the year at 10.84%. This suggests that while core pressures like housing and services (at 18.63%) remain "sticky," the cost of putting food on the table has moderated significantly due to seasonal supplies and improved trade.

Why the Tide is Turning Several "tailwinds" supported this downward trend.

A major factor was the impact of the Dangote Refinery, which provided more competitive fuel pricing, helping to lower the logistics costs that usually drive up the price of goods. Additionally, a stable and appreciating Naira, supported by strong foreign remittances, helped keep import-related inflation in check.

What This Means for You For the average Nigerian

The worst of the price surges may be in the rearview mirror. Regionally, the experience varies; Sokoto enjoyed the lowest inflation at 8.61%, while Abia saw the highest at 19.03%. Looking ahead, the report suggests a "dovish" turn for the Central Bank. With inflation cooling, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to consider a rate cut as early as February, which could eventually lead to more affordable credit and spurred economic growth. While security challenges remain a risk to food supply chains, the overall outlook for 2026 starts on a hopeful note.

If you would like to explore the full analysis, you can download the full December Inflation Report.